As if logistics companies don’t have enough disruption in their industry, from warehouse automation and ecommerce, to driver shortages and omni-channel logistics, it seems like there are new trends emerging every day, each one adding its own twist to the business of 3PLs.

Unlike five or 10 years ago, if logistics companies want to stay ahead in the game and avoid unpleasant surprises, they need to constantly monitor retail sales trends, both on-the-street and online, in addition to the traditional tracking of changes in the supply chain, warehouse management and distribution.

What Can You Learn from the Results of the 2015 Holiday Retail Sales Season?

While there are lots of predictions of what 3PLs need to watch for in 2016, looking back on recent happenings can offer a glimpse of what to expect.

That is if you can make any sense of the mixed signals that have emerged from the 2015 holiday sales season.

Instead of trying to interpret anything for you, we’ll let you take a look at the mixed bag of results:

Overall Retail Sales – The results here range from “underperforming” to “gloomy”.

• The National Retail Federation reported a 3% overall retail sales increase. But that was 23% below the 3.7% increase the NRF previously forecasted for the season.
• In Canada, Best Buy reported a staggering 26% decrease in earnings versus 2014. But that’s mitigated by their shuttering of Future Shop.

Ecommerce Sales –  As has become the norm, no matter how good or bad are the overall sales results, ecommerce outperforms and it was no different during the holidays.

• InternetRetailer.com reported that ecommerce sales “surged” 20%, exceeding by almost 50% the predicted 14% increase
• The NRF found that, for the first time, more people shopped online (103 million) than in stores (102 million) on the U.S. Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend
• FYI – Fortune magazine reports that Amazon.com accounted for 55% of all online sales on the record-setting Monday before Christmas
• Mobile ecommerce orders accounted for 26% of Cyber Monday sales

Package Shipments – A little closer to home for logistics companies, many shippers found themselves swamped from the very start of the sales season.

• In a post on their website, start-up online retailer Jet.com told customers “This year’s holiday gift rush has led to nationwide shipping delays that have affected many of our fulfillment partners.”
• Shipping software company ShipMatrix.com reported an 8% increase shipping for December, versus a year ago.

What Does This all Mean for 2016? If there’s any lesson from the 2015 holiday sales season that can be used by logistics companies to move forward in 2016, it is this: more than ever, predictions are difficult to make. You constantly need to monitor market forces and shifts if you don’t want to suddenly find yourself playing “catch-up”.